Since this is the last "backgrounder" post, I would like to list once again the provisos I set out in my first entry.
Roachbane is not Sri Lankan, but has significant contacts, including highly-placed Sinhalese and Tamils, both inside Sri Lanka and internationally. My first-hand experience of the conflict is more limited than that of Sri Lankans, and its emotional significance is less personally profound. Nonetheless, as with current affairs anywhere in the world, outside views have their place.
And at least I will not be pigeon-holed as belonging to one side or the other.
For readers who don't know much about the conflict, these twelve posts will provide you with a useful summary of its origins, and where things are now.
For Sri Lankans, please read the posts as an outsider's view, without feeling too sensitive. I am critical of all sides, at times in robust language; but I would not have written the posts if I did not revere Sri Lanka and all its peoples.
And now to my comments.
Crimes have been committed in defeating the LTTE. Crimes are still being committed against the northern Tamils.
In the fullness of time, the unnecessary continuation of the war, and the subsequent treatment of Tamil civilians in the north of Sri Lanka – particularly if atrocities are uncovered – may yet see President Rajapaksa invited to The Hague.
Rajapaksa and his two brothers, whom he has made powerful ministers in his government, are said by some to be part of a corrupt clan who are amassing personal fortunes from the offices they hold. I have no idea if these rumours are true, or just gossip.
But once the current military phase concludes, it is conceivable that Rajapaksa will make some sensible decisions, and work towards a new, devolved political structure with real power sharing, taking in not only the Tamils in their various groups, but also the Muslims and smaller groups, not least the Veddhas.
Most Tamils – most Sri Lankans and international observers, in fact – think Rajapaksa is not up to it. They think he is a corrupt bully whose only real interests are money and nationalist glory.
But I am not sure. I think Rajapaksa may yet surprise people – although sadly, I may be proved wrong.
The military defeat of the LTTE will give him the power to push through real reforms, perhaps even achieve a just settlement for all Sri Lanka’s minorities – something neither of the main political parties has been able to do for decades, since the other would play the nationalist card to prevent substantive concessions.
But as a war victor, and with the Tamils massively weakened, he also has the power to do evil. The mass colonisation of Tamil areas by Sinhalese, for instance? Certainly some of his more unsavoury bedfellows will lobby him to change the demographics of the country decisively in favour of the Sinhalese.
For the international community, the immediate and urgent need is to provide humanitarian support, and above all, to press for truly comprehensive, independent monitoring in the North.
But in the longer term, they must make sure the right thing is done by the Tamils - and the island's other minorities, such as the Muslims, Burghers and Veddhas. India in particular must play a role here, especially with respect to the Tamils. One hopes it will able to do more once its election season concludes.
If evidence emerges of major abuses of the Tamil population, such as prolonged incarceration in camps or widespread systematic violence against civilians, or if any effort is made by the Sri Lankan state to alter the demographics of the North, there will be pressure on India to consider military intervention.
For Colombo’s intellectuals, the message is simple – do the right thing. Don’t turn a blind eye to evil, no matter which side commits it; don’t connive with it; don’t wash your hands of people in need. You are part of a wider world of ideas and ethics, and will be judged accordingly; so don't behave as if your world stopped at the Colombo city limits.
For the Tamils: the LTTE is defeated, but not dead. Indeed, after its military defeat, there may be an upsurge in terrorist attacks. But the urgent task now is to think of the wider Tamil cause, and do what is necessary to shore it up, even if that means moving beyond the LTTE.
For indeed, we need now to move beyond the era of the LTTE – at least, beyond the era of the LTTE in its murderous, intolerant, unimaginative Prabhakaran phase.
It is time to move into different ground, with fresh goals, fresh values and fresh methods. Tamils in the diaspora will have a key role in shaping how imaginative, energetic and effective the next phase of the Tamils' struggle for a better life will be.
For people interested in discussing where to go next in Sri Lanka, one useful staring point is the Sahasamvada blogspot and its associated links. Hardliners on either side will not like this site, and nothing can appear neutral from all perspectives, but I think it is worthwhile, written in a spirit of tolerance, full of useful links, and technically excellent. Please let me know your own favourite blogspots and websites.
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